Blockchain technologies entered the trough of disillusionment in 2016, but 2017 will be brighter:;
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What does 2017 have in store for digital assets and underlying blockchain technology?
This is a vital question for those in fintech, especially in light of recent news that Goldman Sachs and Santander left R3 and speculation that bitcoin, the only blockchain protocol in widespread use, is over.
Are the doubters correct? Is this the end of digital currency as we know it?
Not by a long shot, though we can certainly expect some ecosystem changes ahead.
Consider the following: in the wake of Brexit earlier this
year, the value of the British pound, assumed by most to be a ‘safe’
currency, tumbled overnight. During this same period, the value of
bitcoin increased. The same trend was seen after the US Presidential
election. The stock market took a nosedive, yet during the same period,
the value of bitcoin went up.
Are these two events merely coincidental? Not from where I sit. Both
of these data points speak to the secure, borderless, frictionless power
of digital assets. Digital assets are immune to control by a central
authority, capital controls, or currency manipulation. As a result, they
are insulated from global risk.
More importantly, digital assets are designed for today’s era of
digital information and the underlying blockchain technology has the
power to completely overhaul the current financial system, making it
more efficient, transparent and accessible.
When taking a look at the industry over the last twelve months, the first quarter of this year saw total investment in blockchain startups topping a staggering $1 billion. But that investment is starting to pull back. In the first nine months of 2016,
In the first nine months of 2016, blockchain startups raised $429M across 92 equity financings.
Compared to the same period in 2015, the deal activity fell this year
by sixteen percent, and funding was down by seven percent.
Compared to the same period in 2015, the deal activity fell
this year by sixteen percent, and funding was down by seven percent.
And we are already seeing some of this reticence play out in the market.
For example, just last week, Circle announced that they were pivoting away from the buying and selling of bitcoin through their wallet app.
Is this evidence that we are at the beginning of the end?
Not exactly. In fact, this is what should be expected when you are
dealing with technology that radically innovates and transforms
something as important as the financial system. Or, in the framework of
the much-noted Gartner Hype Cycle, bitcoin has passed the so-called Peak of Inflated Expectations,
where “early publicity produces a number of success stories — often
accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; many do
not.”
Instead, the block chain industry is moving into the Trough of
Disillusionment, marked by waning interest “as experiments and
implementations fail to deliver.” During this time, many will fail and
exit the market, while those who survive, will continue to enjoy market
success, secure investment dollars and march forward along a path to
widespread market adoption.
Thus, we are exactly where we should be in the lifecycle of an emerging technology with such widespread potential for impact.
When I look out at 2017, I do see some shifts ahead in the market. In the spirit of the Gartner Hype
Cycle, some will decide to focus on driving incremental change in our
current financial system. Some will decide it’s a more strategic move to
partner with other players in the market than to keep building from the
ground up. And some will simply flame out. But that doesn’t mean that this
space is over. I believe that radical innovation comes not from
incrementally improving the current system but, rather, from building a
new system purpose-built for today’s global world. And as far as
Blockchain is concerned, that will continue throughout 2017 and beyond.
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